FatTail
Solana Devnet

Trade the tails on Solana

Extreme-only prediction markets (90:10+). Earn carry on the 90% side or swing for the tail — settled on-chain, with optimistic disputes for subjective markets.

Launch App Explore Markets
Why extreme-only?

No 50:50 noise — only heavily skewed markets

FatTail focuses on 90:10+ markets where probability is heavily skewed to one side. This creates a natural two-sided market: stable carry for the majority side, and explosive convexity for the tail.

90%
10%
vs 50 : 50

Extreme-only

Only markets with 90:10+ probability skew

Two-sided win

Carry for the 90% side, convexity for the tail

Scalable resolution

On-chain settlement + optimistic disputes

Two-sided value

Built for degens and market makers

Degens get tail convexity; MMs get structured carry with clear resolution rules.

Tail Convexity

Degens

  • Asymmetric payoff on low-probability events
  • 10x+ returns when the unlikely hits
  • Black-swan positioning with real liquidity
Structured Carry

Market Makers

  • Insurance-like premium on the 90% side
  • Transparent resolution and dispute rules
  • Stable, bond-like yield from Vig distribution
How it works

Three steps to trade the tails

1

Pick a market

Browse extreme-probability events — crypto, macro, geopolitical.

2

Take a side

Go tail (10% side) for convexity, or carry (90% side) for yield.

3

Settle & collect

On-chain settlement. Objective markets auto-resolve; subjective markets use optimistic disputes.

Resolution

Three ways to settle

Every market has clear, pre-defined resolution rules.

Admin

Trusted resolution for early-stage markets by platform operators.

Price Feed

Automated settlement from on-chain price oracles (e.g., CoinGecko).

Optimistic Oracle

UMA-style propose → challenge → vote flow for subjective events.

Propose Challenge Vote Resolve
Read resolution rules
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What is a 90:10 market?
A market where one outcome has at least 90% probability. FatTail exclusively hosts these heavily-skewed markets, creating natural two-sided value between carry seekers and tail bettors.
How does carry yield work?
When you take the 90% side, you earn carry from the vigorish (vig) — the spread embedded in every trade. Vig is distributed pro-rata to dominant-side holders, similar to an insurance premium.
What are K-Points?
K-Points (KP) are the platform's non-monetary point system used for trading. They allow participation without direct cash exposure, navigating regulatory requirements.
What is the Optimistic Oracle?
For subjective markets, anyone can propose a resolution. Others can challenge it by posting a bond. If challenged, token-weighted voting determines the outcome. The loser forfeits their bond.
What is LS-LMSR?
Liquidity Sensitive Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule — our automated market maker engine. The liquidity parameter scales with total volume, reducing slippage as more capital enters the market.
What are the risks?
Smart contract risk, oracle risk, and market risk apply. Prices can move against you. Always read the resolution rules and risk disclosures before trading.

Ready to trade the tails?

Join the extreme-only prediction market on Solana.

Launch App